Oct 4, 2023·edited Oct 4, 2023Liked by Jesse Myers
Great post, Jesse. Exciting stuff.
I remember watching the 2020 halving live. Back then I expected the price to explode upward within a few days.
If I would have reviewed past patterns, I would have noticed it required about 1 year for the price to peak after the 1st halving and about 17 months after the next 2 halvings.
If the pattern repeats, the price will peak sometime in September of 2025.
Make sure your seat backs and tray tables are in their upright and locked positions. We're close to take off.
Jesse, I'm still a little confused about point #4. Is the post-halving price adjustment insensitive to daily trading volume because of the (Austrian?) idea that prices are set at the margins?
I’ve read countless articles and books regarding bitcoin and halvings. This is the best, and the first 3 pictures are like the cherry on top. Well done sir 🫡
What a skilfully written post, Jesse! You have so beautifully, and elegantly, explained the relatively mysterious topic of the Halving in a way that just about anyone could understand. You've really outdone yourself on this one. Loved it.
If the majority of the 900 coins introduced daily are currently being hodled by the miners then the halving will not serve as a supply shock. In this scenario wouldn't it be right to assume the impact would be muted?
I've been thinking about this and would appreciate feedback on my theory; I am not so sure that a reduction of supply will necessarily create an increase in price, I'll try to explain my thinking.
If there is currently $900b per month demand for Bitcoin, when the supply is reduced by half and assuming the $900b remains constant, the effect will be that the purchasers will receive half the amount of Bitcoin from the same $ amount. You see, buyers do not generally buy a predetermined amount of Bitcoin, instead they accept however much their $ amount will buy them. So unless buyers are willing to spend twice as much because they are not willing to accept less Bitcoin, they will just receive less Bitcoin with their purchase.
This will make a given amount of Bitcoin harder to acquire but will not necessarily drive price if there are not more $ being allocated.
Think of it this way, let's say you currently DCA $500 per month, after the halving, will you allocate $1k per month or will you accept that you'll receive half the amount of Bitcoin than you would have previously?
Or another way, Michael Saylor does not have a set amount of Bitcoin he wants to buy each quarter with the operating profits from Microstrategy, instead he buys what he can with the amount of profit available. After the halving he will still have the same amount of quarterly profit available to spend, all things being equal, it is just that he will only be able to acquire half as much Bitcoin, thus making it more scarce, but not necessarily driving price.
How about your birthday. Christmas having the eternal creator of the universe connected to it might be more important than the halving of a secular money. No matter how hard it is to “get”.
Great post, Jesse. Exciting stuff.
I remember watching the 2020 halving live. Back then I expected the price to explode upward within a few days.
If I would have reviewed past patterns, I would have noticed it required about 1 year for the price to peak after the 1st halving and about 17 months after the next 2 halvings.
If the pattern repeats, the price will peak sometime in September of 2025.
Make sure your seat backs and tray tables are in their upright and locked positions. We're close to take off.
I really enjoyed today's Newletter. The supply-demand curves were so nice.
Can't wait for another Christmas! (April 2024)
Jesse, I'm still a little confused about point #4. Is the post-halving price adjustment insensitive to daily trading volume because of the (Austrian?) idea that prices are set at the margins?
I’ve read countless articles and books regarding bitcoin and halvings. This is the best, and the first 3 pictures are like the cherry on top. Well done sir 🫡
Good post
What a skilfully written post, Jesse! You have so beautifully, and elegantly, explained the relatively mysterious topic of the Halving in a way that just about anyone could understand. You've really outdone yourself on this one. Loved it.
If the majority of the 900 coins introduced daily are currently being hodled by the miners then the halving will not serve as a supply shock. In this scenario wouldn't it be right to assume the impact would be muted?
I've been thinking about this and would appreciate feedback on my theory; I am not so sure that a reduction of supply will necessarily create an increase in price, I'll try to explain my thinking.
If there is currently $900b per month demand for Bitcoin, when the supply is reduced by half and assuming the $900b remains constant, the effect will be that the purchasers will receive half the amount of Bitcoin from the same $ amount. You see, buyers do not generally buy a predetermined amount of Bitcoin, instead they accept however much their $ amount will buy them. So unless buyers are willing to spend twice as much because they are not willing to accept less Bitcoin, they will just receive less Bitcoin with their purchase.
This will make a given amount of Bitcoin harder to acquire but will not necessarily drive price if there are not more $ being allocated.
Think of it this way, let's say you currently DCA $500 per month, after the halving, will you allocate $1k per month or will you accept that you'll receive half the amount of Bitcoin than you would have previously?
Or another way, Michael Saylor does not have a set amount of Bitcoin he wants to buy each quarter with the operating profits from Microstrategy, instead he buys what he can with the amount of profit available. After the halving he will still have the same amount of quarterly profit available to spend, all things being equal, it is just that he will only be able to acquire half as much Bitcoin, thus making it more scarce, but not necessarily driving price.
Enjoyed reading that. Thanks
fantastic read again mate
Christmas?! 🧐🤔
How about your birthday. Christmas having the eternal creator of the universe connected to it might be more important than the halving of a secular money. No matter how hard it is to “get”.
Thank you for your excellent posts.