Thanks Jesse for great article. I read all of your tweets and articles. One question is bothering me for some time. Please find it below.
Question: We have to understand that most of this wealth (real estate for example) is in form of debt. This new money gets created only when anyone requires debt to buy new home. So, when people start buying fewer homes, then overall debt would go down and hence overall money in the market would also go down. With this, overall real-estate market of 330T would be lower. Now, apply this logic to all assets and you end up with much lower overall wealth than 900T and hence, BTC overall market cap also would be lower. I am curious how do you think about this argument ?
Interesting read to say the least. The only part I really disagree with in your perspective, is the ability of Bitcoin to capture 50% of gold's TAM. Gold is a reserve asset already for central banks, and the biggest player have been stacking for years now. The Ruble is backed by gold, and with the Mir system in Russia expanding and the SWIFT alternative growing every month, it's apparent that gold will have a role to play in a new multipolar financial system, it's only a question of how much. Since Bitcoin can't inherently be controlled by central banks, they will not adopt it willingly in my view.
I don't think people with bonds are going to swap it for bitcoin anytime soon.. bonds are considered the safest bet right now, and people who buy it tend to be conservative. Bitcoin is considered volatile and risky... the swap will come from other asset classes.
But then we remember... 500x "ago" was $60. In 2012.
And before that some saw 500x from $0.12 - in late 2010.
And before that $0.00024 - so basically 2009.
If you don't think bitcoin will do another 500x in your lifetime, you're not paying attention, or you're not expecting to live long enough to see it. I am. If bitcoin doesn't do another 500x multiple in 30 years, I'll be surprised. And I'll still be waiting - it's a belief system at this point.
The banks paying attention will certainly drive the next rollercoaster feature we haven't had a chance to preview.
Wow, keep up the great work. None of us own enough bitcoin
Excellent post, Jesse. Great one to share with TradFi folks.
Awesome stuff Jesse
Well said Jesse. A far more formal and reasoned explanation of my “back-of-the-napkin math” I can direct people to.
Excellent work!
Thanks Jesse! Great read.
Thanks Jesse for great article. I read all of your tweets and articles. One question is bothering me for some time. Please find it below.
Question: We have to understand that most of this wealth (real estate for example) is in form of debt. This new money gets created only when anyone requires debt to buy new home. So, when people start buying fewer homes, then overall debt would go down and hence overall money in the market would also go down. With this, overall real-estate market of 330T would be lower. Now, apply this logic to all assets and you end up with much lower overall wealth than 900T and hence, BTC overall market cap also would be lower. I am curious how do you think about this argument ?
Interesting read to say the least. The only part I really disagree with in your perspective, is the ability of Bitcoin to capture 50% of gold's TAM. Gold is a reserve asset already for central banks, and the biggest player have been stacking for years now. The Ruble is backed by gold, and with the Mir system in Russia expanding and the SWIFT alternative growing every month, it's apparent that gold will have a role to play in a new multipolar financial system, it's only a question of how much. Since Bitcoin can't inherently be controlled by central banks, they will not adopt it willingly in my view.
I don't think people with bonds are going to swap it for bitcoin anytime soon.. bonds are considered the safest bet right now, and people who buy it tend to be conservative. Bitcoin is considered volatile and risky... the swap will come from other asset classes.
I believe next 9~10 years btc will be valued in 10 millions dollars.
Great article! I enjoyed reading it, thank you very much.
Thanks Jesse! Excellent article.
500x? Sounds crazy.
But then we remember... 500x "ago" was $60. In 2012.
And before that some saw 500x from $0.12 - in late 2010.
And before that $0.00024 - so basically 2009.
If you don't think bitcoin will do another 500x in your lifetime, you're not paying attention, or you're not expecting to live long enough to see it. I am. If bitcoin doesn't do another 500x multiple in 30 years, I'll be surprised. And I'll still be waiting - it's a belief system at this point.
The banks paying attention will certainly drive the next rollercoaster feature we haven't had a chance to preview.
This is excellent information.
Probably covered amongst equities and bonds, but I believe bitcoin in cold storage is the best pension as well as savings account.
I have a few hundred thousands sats in my lightening wallet to play with ofc!
Great piece. Thank you.